Retail industry is a highly volatile industry with customer demand forecasting being the most unpredictable; It is subject to a huge number of complex factors; both direct and indirect.
Customer demand prediction & forecasting becomes one of the most complex and unachievable objectives, unless a highly scientific & accurate process is undertaken. There are a few highly important points to consider while trying to come up with accurate forecast
· Past historical data at a deep granular level
· Variables affecting the forecast for the target time period
· Precise algorithm & rules need to be applied to available data and interdependent variables to come up with an accurate forecast
Once you follow the above process you start the journey of transforming the forecasting process from an ART to a SCIENCE
In this journey the mechanism of defining the forecasting rules; the humongous quantum of data which need to be perused becomes astronomical.
More often than not Retail industry forecasting mandates certain Out-Of-The-Box thinking and at the same time sticking to huge amounts of data.
This peculiar fact about retail forecasting makes it an ideal candidate for applying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning methodologies.
The AI/ML algorithms peruse huge amounts of data searching for
· Demand patterns
· Seasonal Patterns
· Co-Variates affecting the forecast
· Demand spikes & troughs
· Macro-Environmental variables affecting retail industry
· Other relevant variables pertaining to the targeted forecasting time period
A judicious use of AI / ML algorithms can give more accurate forecast almost to the extent of improving it by 50 % against best conventional forecasting methodologies.
An accurate forecast or a near accurate forecast is a highly potent weapon to a retailer which hugely optimizes the downstream processes of
· Planning,
· Operations
· Supply chain
· Revenue & Profitability
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